Gas demand can fluctuate due to a range of factors including the commercial environment and weather patterns. National Grid takes multiple factors into consideration when forecasting demand. Incentives in this area measure the accuracy of these forecasts. The forecasts we release are available through the Gas operations pages.
We forecast demand at 13:00hrs on a day-ahead basis and have been subject to an incentive based upon the accuracy of this forecast since 2006. The current version of this scheme is in place from 01 April 2013 until 31 March 2021. The maximum amount we can earn from the scheme is £10m, which requires 100% accuracy of our forecasts.
The scheme has a target forecast error of 8.5mcm per day adjusted up to a further 1mcm dependant upon the extent of additional short cycle storage injection capability connected to the NTS. The maximum amount we can lose is £1.5m. You can view our performance on this incentive by downloading our Supporting Information document.
Two-days to five-days ahead
We publish demand forecasts each day from two to five days ahead of the day. The two-to-five-day-ahead incentive scheme was introduced on 01 April 2013 and put in place for two years. The scheme was renegotiated during 2014/15 with scheme parameters amended to reflect the initial incentive period.
The scheme has a target of 13.7mcm for the average forecast error over the four forecasts (D-2, D-3, D-4 and D-5). The maximum we can earn from the incentive is £10m (which requires 100% accuracy). The maximum we can lose is £1m if forecast error is 15.07mcm and above. You can view our performance on this incentive by downloading our Supporting Information document.