Demand Forecaster Profile

A day in the life of Chris Rogers, Demand Forecaster at the Electricity National Control Centre.

How long have you been working for National Grid?

I joined the CEGB (Central Electricity Generating Board) as it was then,  on 1st January 1980 at the research labs in Leatherhead measuring pollution.  Acid rain was the big issue at the time and we used some amazing and innovative technology.  My interest in the weather really started at Leatherhead when I was tracking pollution over the North Sea.  I then worked at the Control Centre when it was at Park Street in London before moving to the control centre in Berkshire

What does you job entail?

Chris Rogers
*Chris Rogers, featured 4th from left.

My team provides the forecasts to operate and balance the transmission system as well as facilitate the market by providing information onto the Internet.  My team used to be called Demand Energy Analysis and Forecasting (DEAF) which is a good description and the name still sticks with many people.

What are the challenges you face?

Constant change in the energy market seem to be the norm nowadays, so keeping up with the changes is a challenge, but that’s what makes the job interesting.

What aspects of your job make you the most proud?

I like to think that my team are the early warning system for the Electricity National Control Centre to ensure that generation can meet demand at all times and there are no surprises.

What will you have to do to prepare for the World Cup?

While the World Cup is very topical at the moment, my team and the Control Room have to deal with large television and weather effects on demand every day.  Really it is business as usual unless England makes it to the later stages.  As with most forecasting, we have to rely on our extensive historical records of similar events.  We even have a plot of the 1966 World Cup final.  To ensure there are no surprises, we normally provide a number of scenarios that can be used depending on how events turn out on the day.

What do you enjoy most about your job?

" Forecasting is done 24/7 so a problem can arise at any time; in fact holiday times such as Christmas are the most stressful. "

I enjoy the fact that I get involved in many different scientific and technical disciplines.  I have always had an interest in the weather and astronomy.  Having the very latest weather information to hand means that I get a lot of queries on a Friday for the weekend and I even provide a forecast for gritting our site!  I have brought my telescope in to work to show two unique events – the eclipse in 1999 and the Transit of Venus in 2004.  Because I have access to large amounts of weather, demand and event data means that I get many unusual queries about historic events. 

What is the most important tool you need to do your job?

I am quite proud that the most important tool that I use as well as many other people in National Grid is the forecasting database and Graphical User Interface that I developed myself in 1999.  The DEAF system is now one of the vital National Grid applications.

Describe an average day

Trying to catch up with all of my old tasks and responding to new ones.  Forecasting is done 24/7 so a problem can arise at any time; in fact holiday times such as Christmas are the most stressful.

Which team will you be supporting during the World Cup?

I have to say that I don’t normally follow football.  Luckily I have enough people in my team to make up for my lack of knowledge.  I will of course be supporting England in the World cup though!

Historic Demand Graphs

Browse our archived files of historic demand graphs, including the World Cup Final 1966