• Gas demand for Monday edging to new record
• Gas Balancing Alert issued yesterday – routine market mechanism to help keep a supply balance at times of high demand
• Electricity demand forecast to be lower than peak so far this winter
Healthy levels of electricity generation and gas available from a diverse range of sources has left supply and demand balanced despite current high demand levels due to the cold weather, National Grid has reported.
Gas demand across Britain for Monday is currently forecast at 465.8 million cubic metres (mcm). The highest demand so far this winter was 456.6 mcm on 2 December, and the current all-time record is 465.5 mcm set on 8 January 2010.
Despite the healthy supply position, National Grid issued the first Gas Balancing Alert of the winter yesterday as the gas demand forecast for Monday was above the current trigger level of 452 mcm. This is a routine market tool issued at times of high demand or, which is not the case today, when there has been a significant supply loss. The notice helps the market make the right decisions to balance supply and demand, for example by making additional supplies available or reducing demand such as by switching electricity generation from gas to other fuels.
This is the sixth Gas Balancing Alert to be issued since the tool was introduced in 2005.
The availability of gas supplies so far this winter has been higher than anticipated in National Grid’s Winter Outlook Report, notably through the interconnector with Belgium and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported by tanker. Britain’s ability to import LNG received a recent boost from the expansion of National Grid’s Grain LNG facility, which entered full commercial operation on 1 December and now has the capacity to meet 20% of Britain’s annual gas demand. Supplies from the UK Continental Shelf (Britain’s section of the North Sea), Norway and other imports from the continent have been broadly in line with forecast.
Storage remains nearly two thirds full despite an earlier start to withdrawals this winter because of the cold weather. Many storage facilities have alternated between withdrawing gas on colder days and injecting gas back into storage on days of lower demand since the freezing weather began in November.
Electricity demand for Monday is forecast to peak at 59.5 Gigawatts (GW). The highest level of demand so far this winter was 60.0 GW on 7 December 2010, and the current all-time record is 61.0 GW set on 10 December 2002.
There continues to be a healthy surplus of generation capacity available. The analysis in National Grid’s Winter Outlook Report indicated that the surplus of generation over demand was expected to be higher than in recent years. Electricity demand also tends not to be affected by the cold to the same extent as gas demand, with gas-fired central heating much more common than the use of electrical heaters.
Demand for gas and electricity is expected to fall from the middle of the week as the usual drop in usage over the Christmas holidays begins.
Commenting on the effect of the cold weather on energy demand, Chris Train, National Grid’s Network Operations Director, said:
“Increased demand for energy is an inevitable consequence of the cold weather as Britain shivers. However, we remain well supplied with gas and electricity, thanks to strong availiability from a diverse range of sources.
“A Gas Balancing Alert is a routine market tool and should not be a cause for concern. Although there is never room for complacency, we are not seeing anything that would prevent the market from continuing to balance supply and demand across the winter.”
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