The purpose of the Gas Balancing Alert (GBA) is to provide a signal to the market that demand-side reduction and/or additional supplies may be required to avoid the risk of entering into a Network Gas Supply Emergency. The trigger level for a Gas Balancing Alert is based on a combination of the absolute Supply & Demand levels and the impact of a potential breach of a Safety Monitor. The GBA will not cover the likelihood of Interruption to manage Transportation Constraints.

 
The basic trigger level for the alert is set by the anticipated available (non storage) supplies into the network plus storage deliverability. The base case assumptions for non storage supplies are consistent with those published in the Winter Consultation Report and form the basis behind the September Safety Monitor requirements.

 
A GBA will be issued when forecast daily demand for D-1 > Trigger Level. This will be published on the Prevailing View.
Additionally all storage sites with 2 or more days of deliverability will be included within the GBA Trigger Level.  If a storage site is forecast to be depleted to such a level that there will only be 2 days (at maximum withdrawal rate) left in storage above the Safety Monitor level by the end of the current gas day, the trigger level will be reduced by the maximum withdrawal rate for that storage site.

Further information on the daily Gas Balancing Alert and Safety Monitor position (including a five day forecast of supply and demand relative to the daily GBA Trigger Level) can be found on the National Grid Gas Balancing Alerts page of the website  

GBA Process
Further information on this page is intended to inform users of the processes that National Grid Gas plc (“National Grid”), in its capacity as operator of the national gas transmission system has put in place to facilitate over-the-counter (“OTC”) and multi-day trading in line with the Uniform Network Code (“UNC”) prepared by National Grid and others pursuant to the terms of its gas transporter’s licence, following the issue of a Gas Balancing Alert. (Associated documents can be found at the bottom of this page).

National Grid may from time to time seek to enter into Non-System Transactions (as defined in the UNC) with Users (as defined in the UNC).
In accordance with the UNC, National Grid will only enter into Non-System Transactions:
    • When a Gas Balancing Alert has been declared for the relevant Gas Day. A Gas Balancing Alert is published on the National Grid Prevailing View.
    • With gas shippers who are a party to National Grid’s Network Code and are not an OCM subscriber
    • Up to a maximum duration of 7 days from the time the offer is made (i.e. offers made day ahead can only have a 6 day duration)
    • After consideration of the system balance and the offers available via the OCM and OTC.

This may mean that actions are not taken immediately following an offer being made.  If offers are time constrained this should be made clear at the time the offer is made.
Payments for any accepted OTC offers will be as per the original price and invoiced through Ad-hoc EBI invoice in EBI invoice timescales.
The terms applicable to any such Non-System Transactions shall be those set out in the “Short Term Flat NBP Trading Terms and Conditions” 1997 (“NBP97”), as amended and out in the attached ‘Terms and Conditions for OTC Trading’.

Publishing GBA Alert and Trigger
The GBA Alert status and trigger level for “Tomorrow’s” Gasday (D-1) will be published daily on the Prevailing View following the 13:00 Forecast Demand.

 
If a GBA is declared the Alert will display as “ALERT”. If a GBA is not declared the alert will display as “NONE”.

The “GBA Trigger Level” will display the current trigger level figure in mcm.
Both the Alert and Trigger Level will be updated at 06:00 D for Gasday ‘Today’ and the Tomorrow Alert and Trigger Level will be blank until it is updated following the 13:00 Forecast Demand.
See below example of website publication showing Alert status completed.

EXAMPLE

When A Gas Balancing Alert is declared
A summary of the process for the making and accepting of offers in relation to Market Transactions and Non-system Transactions where a Gas Balancing Alert is in place can be found by clicking OTC Flowchart.  A more detailed shipper procedure can be found in EB05192 – ‘Shipper Procedure for Over the Counter Trading’.
The following proformas are available below on this site:
1) Pro-forma to be used for making an OTC offer (P160);
2) Pro-forma for confirming an accepted OTC offer (NBP97).
For information on System Prices see the document below entitled ‘Impacts on SAP, SMPB and SMPS of OTC or OCM Multi-day Trades’.