National Grid is forecasting that Great Britain’s peak electricity demand could be less than expected this winter because of a drop in industrial demand.
New figures published today predict that this winter’s normal weather peak demand will be around 500MW less than previously forecast, at 58.4GW instead of 58.9GW, and in some weeks peak demand could be down by up to 1GW.
National Grid’s Network Operations Director Chris Train said the revised forecast would also mean electricity producers would be able to meet peak electricity demands with more comfort, and the “safety cushion” of surplus generation National Grid requires (over and above the generation needed to meet demand and normal reserves) may increase.
He said: “Over recent years our forecasts have predicted a downward trend in electricity demand because of increased energy efficiency, response to higher fuel prices and increases in local electricity generation.
“However the actual demand figures are still lower than expected because of the current economic slow-down; in particular we are seeing some larger electricity consumers reducing their production and therefore their electricity use. We’re now at a point where we need to reflect this in our published peak demand forecasts, which is why we are issuing new figures today.”
National Grid balances Great Britain’s electricity supply and demand second-by-second, and routinely re-forecasts predicted demand right up to the day before “real time” when, for example, forecasts can increase if weather is colder than normal. However its medium-term and longer-term forecasts are published further ahead, and are not normally revised unless there have been unexpected changes in the long-term outlook.
To see the detailed forecasts visit www.bmreports.com
For further media information only, please contact Doranna Rizzo, National Grid Media Relations, on 01926 655373